3 big things today, June 10, 2022

1. The soybean rally hit many new contract highs yesterday, but has moved lower this morning.

On Thursday, soybean futures led the rally with many new contract highs ahead of today’s USDA report.

“July soybeans were up 29 cents at the close and November was up 14 cents. July corn was up 8 cents, but that was almost a penny short of the day’s high,” says Al Kluis, Kluis Commodity Advisors.

December corn ended the day lower. Wheat posted a wide trading range yesterday, but was down around 1 to 11 cents. In Globex overnight trading, corn futures were down 4 cents, soybean futures were down 9 cents and wheat futures were down 3 cents to rise 3 cents.

“Cash prices for old crop grains seem to vary a lot in the Midwest, and we’re only in the middle of June. Keeping bushels of old crops on the farm could command a hefty premium in the right region of the US,” says Kluis.

Overnight, the trading range for July corn was 6 cents with prices landing at $7.69. The July soybean trading range was 13 cents; prices are down 9 cents to $17.60. CBOT wheat is down 3 cents. Minneapolis wheat is up 3 cents and KC wheat futures are down 1 cent.

2. Corn sales up 51% week over week; soybean sales also increased

From May 27 to June 2, 2021/2022 corn sales were up 51% from the prior week and 19% from the prior four-week average, according to the USDA. Mexico took 89,500 metric tons, Japan bought 76,500 tons, Colombia bought 34,400 tons, Venezuela took 28,300 tons, and Jamaica bought 27,900 tons of US supplies. The purchases were offset by canceled shipments to Guatemala (27,300 tons) and unknown destinations (41,300 tons), the agency said.

For the year 2022-2023, corn sales totaled 73,500,000 metric tons. Exports fell 13% to 1,381,600 tons from the previous week. The destinations were mainly Mexico (344,900 tons), China (266,600 tons), Taiwan (144,400 tons), Japan (118,700 tons) and Colombia (84,700 tons).

Soybean sales for 2021/2022 were also up from the prior week and up 41% from the prior four-week average. China bought 128,900t, Egypt (117,500t), Germany (66,000t), Pakistan (55,000t) and Mexico (29,200t). Purchases were offset by reductions for destinations unknown (27,000t) and South Korea (300t).

For the year 2022-2023, sales were 595,300 tons, most of which went to Pakistan (297,000 tons) and China (261,000 tons). At 476,500 tonnes, exports were up 17% from the previous week, but 17% less than the average for the previous four weeks. The destinations were mainly Mexico (190,200 tons), Germany (66,000 tons), Egypt (52,500 tons), Japan (37,200 tons) and Colombia (27,700 tons).

Wheat sales of 451,000 tonnes for the 2022/2023 marketing year, which started on June 1, went mainly to unknown destinations (117,600 tonnes), Mexico (73,200 tonnes), Philippines (69,200 tonnes), Switzerland (50,000 tons) and Taiwan (40,000 tons). Sales of 740,300 tonnes were carried over from the 2021-2022 business year, which ended on May 31.

Exports for the period ending May 31, at 138,800 tons, brought the cumulative exports to 18,668,900 tons, down 25% from the previous year’s total of 24,806,600 tons. The destinations were mainly South Korea (50,700 tons), Guatemala (25,100 tons), Mexico (24,400 tons), Costa Rica (13,200 tons) and Nigeria (12,100 tons). The 212,000 tons of wheat exported on June 1-2 went mainly to five countries, including Mexico (62,700 tons) and the Philippines (57,900 tons).

3. Record heat, continued rain and storms forecast for many areas this weekend

From California to southern Texas, excessive heat watches and advisories are in place for much of the area. Daytime temperatures are expected to rise 10 to 20 degrees above normal across much of California, the Great Basin, the Southwest and Texas, reaching triple digits in many places, with numerous records expected to fall in the coming days, according to the National Weather Service.

Ongoing showers and storms in Kansas and Oklahoma will continue to move south and east through this morning. Severe thunderstorms, producing damaging winds, are expected across portions of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley and the central Gulf Coast region later this morning into the afternoon. Heavy rains are also expected to produce some localized flash flooding in parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas in the central Gulf Coast region today.

While the threat of severe weather appears limited, showers and storms are expected to spread into the eastern US over the weekend, the National Weather Service says.

Showers and thunderstorms are also forecast for the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with isolated large hail and possible damaging winds.

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