1. Chicago soybean futures slide, but losses were limited
While the warm weather in the extended forecast is a positive for prices, the collapse in the global stock market is seen as a negative, especially for soybeans, says Al Kluis, Kluis Commodity Advisors.
In the US Globex grain markets at this time, corn futures are 1 cent higher; soybean futures are down 19 cents and wheat futures are trading 9-10 cents higher.
On China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, corn futures are 1 cent higher at $11.10. Soybean futures fell 2 cents to $26.10. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 14 cents a bushel higher at $13.0.
In the overnight markets, the trading range for July corn is 12 cents and last trade showed corn was up 1 cent at $7.74.
July soybean trading range is 35 cents; latest trade shows soybeans down 19 cents at $17.26.
Chicago wheat was up 9 cents, KC wheat futures were up 9 cents and Minneapolis wheat was up 10 cents.
“I am watching the US and world stock markets. For the Dow, the key support level is the May 20 low at 30.935; for the S&P 500, it is 3,807. Closing below support and at new lows for the year would be seen as negative for the stock market and the entire commodity complex. A recession results in reduced demand,” says Kluis.
2. SMALLER SOYBEAN STOCKS FOR OLD AND NEW CROPS, SAYS USDA
World crop production 2021/2022
The report pegged 2021 Brazilian soybean production at 126.0mmt versus last month’s USDA estimate of 125.0mmt. and the trade expectation of 124.8 mmt. For corn, Brazil’s production is estimated at 116.0 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 114.6 mmt.
The soybean harvest in Argentina was set at 43.4 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 42.2 mmt. Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is set at 53.0 mmt against the trade expectation of 52.2 mmt.
US ending stocks for 2021/2022
In its June 10 report, the USDA pegged projected corn ending stocks for 2021/2022 at 1.485 million bushels versus the trade estimate of 1.438 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks were 205 million bushels versus the trade expectation of 217 million bushels. The USDA had US wheat ending stocks at 655 million bushels versus the trade expectation of 661 million bushels.
US ending stocks for 2022/2023
For corn, the USDA pegged projected US ending stocks for 2022/2023 at 1.4 billion bushels versus the trade estimate of 1.337 billion bushels. For soybeans, ending stocks were 280 million bushels vs. trade today expecting 295 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were at 627 million bushels versus the trade expectation of 622 million.
2021/2022 ending world stocks
The USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 210.9 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 308.9 mmt. For soybeans, world ending stocks are estimated at 86.2 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 85.0 mmt. World ending stocks of wheat were 279.4 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 278.9 mmt., according to the USDA.
2022/2023 ending world stocks
On Friday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 310.4mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 305.0 mmt. For soybeans, world ending stocks are estimated at 100.5 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 99.8 mmt. For wheat, world ending stocks were 266.9 mmt. vs. the trade expectation of 267.6 mmt.
3. Excessive Heat Warnings, advisories in much of the US.
While a strong Pacific cold front is bringing cooler temperatures to the Southwest today, the heat will spread across the central and eastern US. Look for record temperatures extending north into the Central Plains and into the east from the middle of the Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas. .
As the front moves west Tuesday, temperatures will become more tolerable in the plains. However, the heat will continue to increase ahead of the front, with temperatures well above normal from the Midwest to the Carolinas.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop today across portions of the Northern Plains and from portions of the Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Storms can produce large hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes. The threat of severe thunderstorms moves into the upper Midwest, Northern Plains and mid-Atlantic on Tuesday as the strong cold front moves into the area.