Astros odds vs. Yankees, prediction, selection for today’s game

The two favorites to win the American League pennant will begin a four-game series on Thursday night when Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros take on Jameson Taillon and the New York Yankees.

The Astros enter the series trailing the Yankees by 7.5 games in the standings, while the Bombers also boast an 84-run lead in terms of run differential. The Yankees are -130 favorites to win Thursday night and if the line closes there, it would be only the 11th time Evil Empire has closed below -130 this season.

That tells you a couple of things. Of course, the fact that the Yankees have been -130 or better in 58 of their 69 games is incredibly impressive. But the current price also shows us that the market is pretty bullish on the Astros, even if they’re way behind the Bombers in the standings.

Astros vs Yankees Odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

spread: HOU +1.5 (-185) vs. NYY -1.5 (+150)

money line: HOU (+110) vs. NYY (-130)

Total: More than 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

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Astros vs Yankees Prediction

One reason to be a little skeptical about Houston’s record is that the Astros have only played 17 games against teams with a record over .500. Those numbers may be a little skewed early in the season, but it’s still pretty weird because every other MLB team has played at least 25 games against clubs above the Mason-Dixon line. The Yankees, for example, have played 31 games (9-22) against teams over .500.

Thursday night’s pitching matchup is quite interesting as it features two starters, Jameson Taillon and Framber Valdez, with similar statistical portfolios. Neither Taillon nor Valdez will rack up strikeouts, but they do a great job avoiding barrels and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Valdez is especially adept at inducing ground balls, sporting a league-best 67.5 GB% in 81 innings of work. To put that in perspective, no other MLB pitcher has 57 GB% on the season.

While Taillon’s GB% doesn’t come close to Valdez’s, he’s still going strong and the Yankees right-hander is the best starter in the league in limiting walks so far this season.

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Despite a pitching matchup featuring two pitchers with ERAs under 3, this game’s total is 8 with the Over slightly increased to -115. And while backing up the Under in a game that features two of MLB’s best offenses playing in a run-friendly stadium, these two starters are sensational at limiting damage and getting out of trouble.

In games like this, the over is often inflated, so you might be patient to see if this number continues to rise towards 8.5, but even at the current price, Under 8 looks playable.

Astros pick vs. Yankees

Under 8 (-105) — BetMGM

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