Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. We had some bad luck yesterday, with Aaron Ashby having his worst start to the season, plus Luis Garcia being the victim of multiple home runs by Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Aguilar. Be sure to follow my Twitter as I can’t guarantee you’ll always be able to get the bonus plays written here in the article, but I’ll usually add whatever else I’m playing during the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can bring you the best betting picks, supports and lineups throughout the season. We are happy that you are here with us and look forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you’re new, or just a refresher for those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I have been betting on MLB baseball games for four years and this is my second season in MLB working with the great people at RotoBaller. I created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I will provide my favorite betting picks for MLB games on Saturday, June 11, 2022. I am continually working to improve my models to be more accurate and as the season progresses I will share the data I have with my staff. Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to follow me if you haven’t already, and feel free to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all that said, let’s break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to date: 30-36-1, -12.27 units
- Sides: 23-24, -9.28 units
- Totals: 6-12-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today’s MLB betting picks: Blue Jays @ Tigers
S/U: 8.5 | Money line: DET +205
TOR: Kevin Gausman | DET: Beau Breiske
I’m going to Detroit for the first play of the day as we look to recover this afternoon. While I ended up resting, he was taking a look at the over from yesterday’s game, which he hit with relative ease despite the Tigers recording just one run. It looks like runs will be hard to come by today and they’ll be facing Kevin Gausman (5-4, 2.78 ERA). Detroit will send right-hander Beau Breiske (0-5, 4.93 ERA) to the mound.
Gausman has established himself as one of the best starters in the game today. His only fatal flaw this season has been allowing hard contact, which he allows at a rate of 32.4%. I do have this number going back positively, though, as my model projects Detroit to have only a 27.88% hard contact rate in this matchup coupled with a poor wOBA + ISO of .368. Gausman should also regress positively when it comes to allowing runs, given his 2.59 xFIP, which is the same number I have projected for this afternoon. Breiske, on the other hand, is allowing 34.3% hard contact and projects to allow a 30.23% hard contact rate against Toronto today. While her projected xFIP of 4.76 is below his xFIP for the year, it’s not much (4.92).
Given the data, it’s clear that Toronto has the clear advantage in starting pitching here. I’ll be looking at the Blue Jays in the top five at -0.5, which FanDuel is giving us -170 odds at the moment. We’re going to get some CLV here for sure, so we’ll want to get this play in early. Gausman has been dominant in pitching in Game 2 of a series, with the Blue Jays winning four straight starts in that situation. By contrast, the Tigers have lost four straight Breiske starts in the same situation. I’m not going to overthink things here.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-170) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 pc
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Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Marlins @ Astros
S/U: 8.5 | Money line: HOU -270
missing in action: braxton garrett | HOU: Framber Valdez
I’ll be heading back to Houston for our second snap of the afternoon, but instead of looking at the F5 below, I’ll be looking at the Astros’ bats going up in flames against Marlins starter Braxton Garrett (0-1, 10.80 ERA). The Astros will look to avenge yesterday’s loss by sending Framber Valdez (6-2, 2.61 ERA) to the mound.
While Garrett has had just one start on the season, it wasn’t a great one, allowing four runs on five hits in just 3.1 innings of work. He projects to have a brutal 7.71 xFIP today, while the Astros project a 35.08% hard contact rate and .611 wOBA + ISO. On the other hand, Framber Valdez projects to continue shooting well, with a projected xFIP of 3.20. However, the Marlins project to make decent contact, given their 30.08% hard contact rate.
Like the Blue Jays, I’ll be looking at the Astros F5 -0.5 line here. We’re getting solid value here at -155, so I’m very happy to take it. The Marlins have put together a solid small win streak, winning four in a row, but the last thing they want to see today is a left-hander. They’ve lost four straight against lefties, and they’re running into not only one of the best lefties in the game, but one of the best pitchers in the league overall. The Astros have won each of their last six starts as favorites, so I’ll confidently back them to win the first five innings of this one.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (-155) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 pc
Good luck, RotoBallers, and be sure to follow my twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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