MLB Free Bet Picks: Today’s Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/6/22)

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I hope you have enjoyed your weekend so far. Yesterday we had more brutal luck, with Braxton Garrett and Beau Breiske dueling Framber Valdez and Kevin Gausman, respectively, and messing up both of our F5 plays. Be sure to follow my Twitter as I can’t guarantee you’ll always be able to get the bonus plays written here in the article, but I’ll usually add whatever else I’m playing during the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can bring you the best betting picks, supports and lineups throughout the season. We are happy that you are here with us and look forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

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If you’re new, or just a refresher for those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I have been betting on MLB baseball games for four years and this is my second season in MLB working with the great people at RotoBaller. I created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I will provide my favorite betting picks for MLB games on Sunday, June 12, 2022. I am continually working to improve my models to be more accurate and as the season progresses I will share the data I have with my staff. Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to follow me if you haven’t already, and feel free to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all that said, let’s break down some baseball games.

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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks

  • Season to date: 30-38-1, -14.27 units
  • Sides: 23-26, -11.28 units
  • Totals: 6-12-1, -4.69 units
  • Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Pirates @ Braves

S/W: 9 | Money Line: ATL -260

PIT: José Quintana | ATL: Kyle Wright

I’ll head to the ATL for our first play of the day as the Pirates and Braves wrap up their weekend series. It will be the last game of a homestand for Atlanta, which is currently riding a 10-game winning streak. They’ll send Kyle Wright (6-3, 2.39 ERA) to the mound in an effort to extend that winning streak to 11 games. He’ll face Jose Quintana (1-3, 3.19 ERA) and the Pirates, who have been on the wrong end of five straight. I think every streak continues, and I’ll be looking for more F5 action.

Although Quintana’s 3.19 ERA seems clean, it has been considerably worse lately. His WHIP and ERA have increased to 1.77 and 5.54, respectively, in his last three starts. He’s allowing 32.1% hard contact on the season, and while his xFIP is a respectable 3.91, my projections put him much worse today at 4.86. His 23.48 rating is toward the bottom of the list. On the other hand, Kyle Wright has been better in his last three starts, posting a 2.18 ERA. His 25.1% hard contact rate on the season is impressive, along with his 3.26 xFIP. His 30.27 model rating gives Atlanta a bit of a pitching advantage here.

The Braves not only have the shooting advantage, but they also provide the offensive advantage. His projected .669 wOBA + ISO and hard contact rating of 42.71% rank highest on the board, beating Pittsburgh’s .420 projected wOBA + ISO and hard contact rating of 28.5 %. FanDuel is giving us Braves -0.5 to -155 in the first five, and I have no problem backing that up while they’re on this winning streak.

Spike: Braves F5 -0.5 (-155) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 Count

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Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Rays @ Twins

S/U: 8.5 | Money Line: MIN +108

Tuberculosis: Jeffery Springs | MIN: Cole Sands

I’m heading to Minnesota for our second play of the day as the Rays and Twins wrap up their weekend series. It will be two young arms on the mound today as Jeffery Springs (2-2, 1.62 ERA) picks up the ball for the visiting Rays while Cole Sands (0-2, 8.49 ERA) picks up the ball for the Twins.

Springs’ numbers through this part of the season are extremely impressive, and he’s been keeping that form of late. While his numbers have dipped slightly in his last three starts, they haven’t been by much. His 1.62 ERA has dropped to a 2.12 ERA, and his WHIP has dropped from 0.92 to 1.12 in that span. He is allowing 29.5% hard contact and brings an xFIP of 3.28. However, my numbers project that he will fare slightly worse today, as he projected that he will have an xFIP of 3.71 and a rating of 26.28.

It’s not so much about betting on Springs as it is about betting against Cole Sands. Sands WHIP stands at 1.97 as it allows 33.3% hard contact and generates an xFIP of 4.81. I have him about the same today, only slightly worse at 4.84, and the Rays hit him with a projected 33.64% hard contact rate. The bullpen battle is mostly a washout, but it’s worth noting that Tampa Bay is off tomorrow while Minnesota has to travel to Seattle for a series with the Mariners. For that reason, I’ll take the Rays value at -126 on FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s a getaway day though, so I’ll take this for only half a unit.

Pick: Rays Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5pk

Good luck, RotoBallers, and be sure to follow my twitter for more plays. I’ll see you Friday!

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