MLB Free Bet Picks: Today’s Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/8/22)

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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Be sure to follow my Twitter as I can’t guarantee you’ll always be able to get the bonus plays written here in the article, but I’ll usually add whatever else I’m playing during the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can bring you the best betting picks, supports and lineups throughout the season. We are happy that you are here with us and look forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

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If you’re new, or just a refresher for those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I have been betting on MLB baseball games for four years and this is my second season in MLB working with the great people at RotoBaller. I created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I will provide my favorite betting picks for MLB games on Saturday, August 6, 2022. I am continually working to improve my models to be more accurate and as the season progresses I will share the data I have with my staff. Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to follow me if you haven’t already, and feel free to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all that said, let’s break down some baseball games.

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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks

  • Season to date: 47-54-2, -17.85 units
  • Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
  • Totals: 17-21-1, -5.1 units
  • Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Pirates @ Orioles

S/U: 8.5 | Money line: BAL -162

WELL: JT Brubaker | BAL: Austin Both

After going 2-0 yesterday, I’ll be looking for a couple of first-inning unders to get us going today. In fact, I played the first inning in the Mitch Keller vs. Dean Kremer last night, and I’m more than willing to do it again today. The Pirates are sending JT Brubaker (2-9, 4.40 ERA) to the mound. Brubaker has been solid in the first inning this year, giving up a run in just six of his 20 starts, including just four of 12 starts on the road.

The “new era” Orioles have been on a hot streak for the past month, posting a 1-0 victory against Pittsburgh last night. They’ll send Austin Voth (1-1, 5.54 ERA) to the mound. Voth recently started delving into games and hasn’t gone more than five innings pitched in a start all year. Despite his poor ERA, Voth has been perfect in the first inning, keeping opponents scoreless in the seven games he has started, four of them in Baltimore.

Neither of these teams have scored much in the former, with the Pirates scoring in just 19% of opening frames on the road, as well as 19% overall. They have been shut out in the first inning in each of their last ten games. By contrast, the Orioles have scored in just 14% of first innings at home and 17% of first innings overall. It’s worth noting that they’ve scored in three of their last ten, but overall that won’t stop me from playing this down. FanDuel Sportsbook gives us the bass at just -106, while my model gives the bass a 69.24% chance of hitting.

Selection: Under 0.5 runs in the first inning (-106) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

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Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Braves @ Mets

S/U: 6.5 | Money Line: NYM -134

ATL: Max Frito | NYM: Max Scherzer

We’ll head to I-95 towards Queens for our second first inning of the day. In a battle of aces as well as a battle of “Max,” the Mets and Braves will meet again, the fourth of five games in their weekend series. The Braves will send Max Fried (10-3, 2.58 ERA) to the mound. Fried has been perfect on the road in eight starts, and nearly perfect overall, giving up a run in just two of 21 starts.

The Mets will send Max Scherzer (7-2, 2.13 ERA) to the mound tonight. While Fried has been perfect on the road this season, Scherzer has been perfect at home, keeping opponents scoreless in the first inning in eight starts at Citi Field. He hasn’t been bad overall either, allowing a run in the first inning in just two of 14 starts.

While the Mets have been pretty solid scoring in the opening frame at home (47%), that number drops to just 35% when all of their games are factored in. By contrast, the Braves have scored in 28% of their first innings on the road, as well as 29% of games overall. Both teams have scored in just three of their last ten games. My model offers the first entry with a 62.84% chance of hitting, which still gives us solid value despite the -160 price on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Selection: Under 0.5 runs in the first inning (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

Good luck, RotoBallers, and be sure to follow my twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!

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