We are officially more than two months into the MLB season. Right now, we’re starting to see some division races take shape as teams start to feel the pressure. Multiple managerial changes have already been made. Just remember, the Nationals (2019) and Braves (2021) certainly weren’t viewed as anything like World Series contenders right now in those seasons. Really anything can happen in baseball, but that’s what makes it so special.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I will provide my favorite MLB betting picks on ThursdayJune 9, 2022, for the game of 11 12:35 p.m. EST board. Personally, my approach comes a bit more from the analytical side; I use a projection model that I created using projections of THE BAT X Y Fangraph depth charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the pitcher on the team. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to a money line adjusted. . For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today’s starting pitcher) are used, along with baseball sage park factors This is not the “end, all be all”, but having some objective system for identifying potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will look at the best side and total bets for today’s board. Today it features fewer games than usual, but there are still some interesting games to break down. What sides/totals should you take into account? Let’s dive into today’s action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative difference indicates that the home team is projected to win and vice versa.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
S/S: 8 | Money line: MIA -127
WSH: Stephen Strasbourg | MIA: Trevor Rogers
Welcome back, Stephen Strasburg!
Once upon a time, Strasburg, a former No. 1 overall pick, was one of the best pitchers in the league and won World Series MVP in 2019. Since then, he’s managed to pitch just 26.2 innings and now he’s making his highly anticipated debut. Is there anything left in the tank? There are reasons to be skeptical.
Since 2019, Strasburg’s average fastball speed has dropped to less than 92 MPH, two points below where it was in 2019 (93.9). In all, he got just a 96.5+ pitch from Eno Sarris’ predictive + pitching model, and we shouldn’t expect a comeback in his first MLB game in over a year. The Marlins have the fourth-best weighted career-created-plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season, while Strasburg, a contact pitcher, now has to play behind defense with the third-worst defense, based on Outs Above Average (OAA). Bottom line, expect Miami to come out shooting here.
It’s been a tough season for Trevor Rogers, but it’s worth noting that prior to one season at Coors, he had a double-digit strike count in three straight starts. He now faces the least successful offense (-19.1 runs above average) against trades, as well as a bottom-five team against sliders (-18.9 runs above average). That’s great news for Rogers, as it’s about half his shooting mix and the Nats overall have the lowest isolated power (ISO) against lefties this season.
The Marlins have the pitcher with even more potential and better prospects, a far superior offense and defense, as well as a better-performing bullpen. At reasonable odds, it’s hard not to like Miami here. Plus, they’re a fun team! There are plenty of reasons to watch them (who doesn’t like Jazz Chisholm Jr.), but considering a good Marlins win is icing on the cake.
Pick: Miami ML (-127), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
S/U: 7.5 | Money line: LAA- 125
BOS: Nick Pivetta | LAA: Shohei Ohtani
The Angels have to win at some point, right? I mean, they’ve reached the desperate times of relying on nickelback to get them out of their depression. Sadly, that didn’t work to snap them off a 13-game losing streak that led to the firing of manager Joe Maddon. It also looks like we’ll be without Mike Trout again in the playoffs.
For one day at least, a ray of hope should shine in Anaheim. Why? Well, it’s Shohei day! Although his 3.99 ERA may not reflect it, Shohei Ohtani has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In nine starts, he has an absurd K-BB of 27.4%, a skill interactive effectiveness (SIERA) of 2.61, as well as a dominant swinging strike rate of 15.1% and a called strike whiff rate of 32.1%. He names a shooting metric and Ohtani is most likely at the top of that list. In particular, he continues to sit 2 MPH (97.6 MPH in his last start) stronger with his fastball than he did last year and lean more on his elite slider (11.8 runs above average last year), which has helped to go one step further.
On the other hand, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is a case study opposite Ohtani; While his ERA (3.50) looks solid on the surface, he’s also benefiting from a very low .252 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and an 8.3% home run/fly ball rate. What better place for the natural regression to take place than against a still-talented lineup and in the most hitter-friendly fourth ballpark, for Baseball lover?
It’s been tough for the Angels, but unless they just don’t win again, the talent will win at some point. Given their difficulties, the huge cast advantage they have here seems to be undervalued, which should be put to good use. Regardless of the goodbye songs you use as you seek to get out of your depression, it’s time to ride the halo!
Pick: Angels Moneyline (-125), DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more gambling/fantasy content, you can follow me on @hablarmvp.
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