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Mortgage rates and refinancing, June 23

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates fell sharply yesterday. Finally, some good news! And, suddenly, the average rate of conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is once again below 6%.

There may be more good news. Because the markets were signaling early this morning that today’s mortgage rates could go back down. But, as always, that could change with the passing of the hours.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage interest rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 years fixed 5,935% 5,971% -0.1%
Conventional 15 years fixed 5,171% 5,227% +0.02%
Conventional 20 years fixed 5,911% 5,969% -0.23%
Conventional 10 years fixed 5,303% 5,409% -0.17%
30 year fixed FHA 6,116% 6,972% +0.37%
15 year fixed FHA 5,345% 5,834% -0.12%
30-year fixed VA 5,638% 5,869% +0.4%
15-year fixed VA 5,463% 5,837% -0.09%
Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t block a day when mortgage rates appear to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions on the general direction of those rates. Therefore, they do not change on a daily basis to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Can’t take away from yesterday’s good news. Mortgage rates are now back to where they were almost two weeks ago.

But, in no mood to rain on anyone’s parade, I doubt this or future similar downfalls will last long. We will likely need to see sure signs of cooling in inflation before worthwhile mortgage rate declines are sustainable. And that may well be sometime in 2023. Read on for my reasons.

Regardless, my personal long-term rate lock recommendations should remain:

  • TO CLOSE if it closes 7 days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes fifteen days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes 30 days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes Four. Five days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes 60 days

>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinance rate

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here’s a snapshot of the state of the game this morning around 9:50am ET. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, were:

  • the 10-year Treasury note yield it fell to 3.07% from 3.15%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields.
  • Major stock indices they were higher shortly after the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying stocks, they are often selling bonds, pushing prices down and driving up yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship.
  • oil prices it rose to $106.37 from $102.10 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Prayed prices decreased to $1,838 from $1,843 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Generally, it is better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to lower rates
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — went up to 23 from 19 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” Investors they push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones.

*A move of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a change of 1% or less. Therefore, we only consider significant differences to be good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and Rate Warnings

Before the pandemic and the Fed’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at past numbers and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to trust them. But, with that caveat, today’s mortgage rates look likely to drop. However, keep in mind that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature at this time.

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when there are problems. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care
  2. Only “tier one” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements, although they all tend to follow the broader trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave your rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to purchase rates.

A lot is happening right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan yesterday summed up his view of what happened in the markets that day:

Markets oscillate between fears of recession and fears of inflation. Today are recession fears. Real wage growth is dire in most major economies. However, consumers are cutting savings rates or increasing lending to support demand, limiting the slowdown in growth.

Paul Donovan, “The Fed Chairman Who Cried ‘Wolf,'” June 22, 2022

In a way, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said all the right things yesterday when he gave his testimony on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee. He commented: “At the Fed, we understand the difficulties that high inflation is causing. We are strongly committed to reducing inflation and are moving quickly to do so.”

But, as Paul Donovan pointed out, it was the wrong day for that message. And markets focused on economic threats of an impending recession.

Most markets fell, at least a bit. And only mortgage rates emerged as a clear winner.

Mr. Powell will return to Capitol Hill this morning when he appears before the House Financial Services Committee. The markets have already responded to what he said yesterday. Therefore, he could take on a different tone or content to move them further. Either that or his focus might have returned to inflation, in which case all bets are off.

Yesterday was an example of recent market volatility in action. And I don’t see that going away anytime soon, absent some globally significant event. So while it’s possible that the drop in mortgage rates that day was the start of a new sustained downward trend, I highly doubt it was.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article to learn more.

Recent Trends – Updated Today

For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And a new weekly record low was set 16 times that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then wobbled, moving little for the next eight or nine months. But they began to rise noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they have mostly spiked since the beginning of 2022, although May was a kinder month.

Freddie’s June 23 The report puts that same weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 5.81% (with 0.8 fees and points), up 5.78% from the previous week.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 points and fees”) at closing that earn you a lower rate. If he doesn’t, his rate would be closer to what we and others quote.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing industry, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The Fannie ones were published on June 16 and the MBA ones on June 10. Freddie’s were published on April 18. But now he only updates his numbers quarterly, so they already look outdated.

Forecaster T2/22 T3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23
fannie mae 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
freddy mac 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0%
Masters of Business Administration 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0%

Of course, given the number of unknowables, the entire current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them seem that way.

Find your lowest rate today

You should shop around regardless of the type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Comparing your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars during the life of your loan.

Mortgage Rate Methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrived at an average rate and APR for each type of loan to display in our chart. Because we average a variety of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA Fixed with FHA Fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parents or affiliates.

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