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Mortgage rates today, June 11, and rate forecast for next week

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates yesterday rose exceptionally fast. And what had been a modestly bad week for those rates turned into a truly terrible one. Read on for the spooky details.

Mortgage rates often pull back after an unusually strong change. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull back a bit next Monday and Tuesday, though don’t expect them to recoup all or even most of yesterday’s losses. From next Wednesday onwards, no one knows where they will move. Because crucial Federal Reserve announcements (more on the following) are due on that day.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage interest rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 years fixed 5,762% 5,785% +0.11%
Conventional 15 years fixed 4,845% 4,875% +0.18%
Conventional 20 years fixed 5,775% 5,812% +0.21%
Conventional 10 years fixed 4,781% 4,866% +0.11%
30 year fixed FHA 5,554% 6,296% +0.23%
15 year fixed FHA 5.07% 5,477% +0.06%
30-year fixed VA 5,019% 5,235% -0.05%
15-year fixed VA 5,622% 5,975% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.


Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t block a day when mortgage rates appear to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions on the general direction of those rates. Therefore, they do not change on a daily basis to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Last week I wrote here: “Markets continue to show unusual volatility.” Boy, was it true. The sharpness of yesterday’s rise in mortgage rates was unprecedented. But it was extremely rare.

We could (no guarantees) see some worthwhile dips early next week. But, on Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will issue a report and hold a press conference. And mortgage rates could move in reaction to that. Whether they go up or down will depend on what the Fed says. But I guess significant and sustained declines are unlikely.

And so my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

  • TO CLOSE if it closes 7 days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes fifteen days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes 30 days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes Four. Five days
  • TO CLOSE if it closes 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty right now, his instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine, or better. So let your instincts and personal risk tolerance guide you.

What is moving current mortgage rates?

According to data from Mortgage News Daily (MND), the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage shot up 30 basis points yesterday (a basis point is one-hundredth of 1%). In other words, they jumped from 5.55% to 5.85%. That is really an extraordinary increase in a single day.

That rise was fueled by a worse-than-expected consumer price index released yesterday morning. In early May, investors had reason to hope that inflation was stabilizing. That’s why mortgage rates fell for about three weeks that month.

But yesterday’s index showed inflation still rising, and at its fastest pace in 40 years. Mortgage rates ended the day at their highest point since November 2008, according to MND.

Yesterday, investors were most concerned about how the Fed would react to the new inflation data. You have a two-day meeting starting next Tuesday. And he’ll top it off the next day with a statement and screenings (2 pm (ET)) and a press conference (2:30 pm (ET)). These events are always closely followed by the markets. But I doubt that many have been watched more carefully than this one.

What could the Federal Reserve do?

How could it be bad news? Well, the Fed could announce that it will raise rates more often and by larger amounts. We are already expecting a 0.5% hike next week and another after their July meeting. Could you note such increases for the other three meetings you will hold this year? Could you even make one or more of those 0.75% increases? We’ll find out next Wednesday.

We’ll also know on that day whether yesterday’s inflation report has affected the Fed’s thinking about its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), the type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates. As of last Wednesday, his holdings were worth $2.7 trillion. And that gives you enormous power over those rates.

The Fed has already said it will reduce its MBS holdings, which is likely to put upward pressure on mortgage rates. But if he speeds up those plans, and perhaps announces that he will start selling MBS sooner than expected, that could push those rates even higher.

What this means for mortgage rates

Markets are already expecting a tougher line from the Fed next Wednesday. And yesterday was its price in that expectation. If the actual line is less difficult than they expect, mortgage rates could fall that day. If they are more or less in line with those expectations, those rates may not move at all.

However, if the Fed turns unexpectedly hawkish, it could be a bad day, week and month for those rates. We are already dangerously close to 6% mortgage rates this morning.

economic reports next week

The week ahead is likely to be dominated by that Wednesday’s announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which we discussed in detail in the last section. And that is likely to overshadow the week’s important economic report, May Retail Sales, due just hours before the Fed events.

Naturally, everything related to inflation will attract the attention of investors. That includes the New York Fed’s inflation projections for the next one and three years, which are due Monday. And the producer price index on Tuesday.

Potentially more important reports, below, are in bold. The others are unlikely to move markets much unless they contain surprisingly good or bad data.

  • Monday – New York Fed Inflation Expectations for the next one to three years
  • Tuesday – Producer Price Index for final demand
  • Wednesday – FOMC statement, projections and press conference. Plus May Retail Sales
  • Thursday: Start of May housing. Plus, new weekly unemployment insurance claims through June 11
  • Friday: May industrial production index, including capacity utilization

It’s about Wednesday.

Mortgage interest rate forecast for next week

I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if mortgage rates fell next Monday and Tuesday. Such declines are common, though far from inevitable, after sharp gains like yesterday’s. Just don’t expect those rates to offset more than a fraction (if any) of your Friday losses.

Next Wednesday and after that is a different story. As explained in detail above, it will all depend on what the Fed says on that day.

Mortgage and refinance rates typically move in tandem. And the removal of the adverse market refinancing fee last year largely eliminated a gap that had grown between the two.

Meanwhile, another recent regulatory change has likely made mortgages for investment properties and vacation homes more accessible and less expensive.

How Your Mortgage Interest Rate Is Determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that largely depends on the economy. Therefore, mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is in trouble.

Your part

But you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And it can significantly affect you by:

  1. Looking for the best mortgage rate: they vary a lot from one lender to another
  2. Boost your credit score – even a small increase can make a big difference in your rate and payments
  3. Save the biggest down payment you can – lenders like that you have real skin in this game
  4. Keep your other loans modest – the lower your other monthly commitments, the more mortgage you can afford
  5. Choose your mortgage carefully: are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo, or other loan?

The time spent putting these ducks in a row can earn you lower rates.

Remember, they are not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to factor in all of the future costs of owning a home when calculating the amount of mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI”. That’s your Pprincipal (pay back the amount you borrowed), meinterest (the price of the loan), (property) Taxes, and (owners) meinsurance Our mortgage calculator can help with this.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily reach three figures each month.

But there are other potential costs. Therefore, you will have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live in a place with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There is no landlord to call when things go wrong!

Finally, you will find it difficult to forget about closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over the term of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. Y your down payment, especially if it’s your first time shopping. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in all states for 2021

Mortgage Rate Methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrived at an average rate and APR for each type of loan to display on our chart. Because we average a variety of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA Fixed with FHA Fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parents or affiliates.

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