With only one game left on the slate for Saturday night’s WNBA between the Las Vegas Aces and the LA Sparks, Donnavan Smoot and I split our bets 1-1 yesterday. I was expecting the Sparks’ recent first-quarter run of success to hit a +170 discount rate at home against the Aces in a lively atmosphere in Los Angeles, but Becky Hammon’s team took off.
Fortunately, Donnavan’s -7 Aces pick held up smoothly.
Today, there are four games on the slate, starting with the Chicago Sky heading to Brooklyn to face the Liberty in the early afternoon. I’m looking at an early play on a first-quarter total in that matchup, followed by an underdog getting too many points on the Mercury and Mystics later on.
Before we dive into our best bets, here are the latest odds for all four games in the books tonight, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Best WNBA prop betting record to date
- WNBA Best Bets Record: 23-18
WNBA odds, spread and totals for each game (Sunday June 12)
Chicago Sky vs New York Freedom
Spread: Sky -7 (-110) | Freedom +7 (-110)
money line: Sky -300 | Freedom +240
Total: 159 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings
spread: Storm -4 (-110) | Wings +4 (-110)
money line: Storm -180 | Wings +150
Total: 158.5 (PLUS -110 | MINUS -110)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics
spread: Mercury +8 (-110) | Mystics -8 (-110)
money line: Mercury +300 | Mystics -380
Total: 160 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx
spread: Fever +1 (-110) | Lynx -1 (-110)
money line: Fever -105 | Lynx -115
Total: 165.5 (PLUS -110 | MINUS -110)
These are my two favorite bets for today’s board with odds coming from WynnBET Sportsbook.
The best WNBA picks for Sunday, June 12
- Sky 1Q -2 (-110)
- Mercury -8 (-110) vs. Mystics
Sky vs. Prediction and Selection Liberty
Defending champions Sky continue to show why they deserve to remain in the conversation of the best teams in the league; shocking the Connecticut Sun on their home floor on Friday night with a final score of 83-79. They also rallied from 17 down in the second half and 13 down in the final 5:37 on Wednesday at DC before losing on two free throws in the closing seconds.
Meanwhile, the Liberty have found a new team after looking like they may be the worst team in the league. In their last five games, they are 4-1, tied for the best record during that stretch with the Sun for the best offensive rating and net rating in the league.
The line for Sky -7 feels a bit high but I also know they have it on them. Rather than take a chance on a line or total that feels like a toss-up, I’ll rely on Chicago’s ability as the best net-rated first-quarter team (+20.6) in the WNBA this year against a Liberty team that has improved, but still ranks 9th (-8.5). Two points doesn’t seem like much to cover, especially given his propensity to start games well.
TO CHOOSE: Sky 1Q -2 (-110)
Prediction and choice of Mercury vs. Mystics
I get that Washington is a pretty good team, but Elena Delle Donne is probably still dealing with back and muscle spasms, and Phoenix is starting to play their best basketball of the season.
Phoenix lost 2-8 at the start of the year, but won their last two games in a row against a good Atlanta Dream team and an up-and-down Sparks team in their previous game. They have gone 2-2 in their last four, but lost two very close games to Connecticut by 4 and Chicago by 3; two of which are in the top 3 of the best teams in the league.
The Mercury rank last in opponents’ points per 100 possessions, and Washington’s offense right now isn’t the team best positioned to really take advantage of it. Also, are we really going to banish White Mamba on his 40th birthday?