Thursday was pretty much a wasted day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes head office.
Except for the weekend’s handicap races at Belmont (on Friday afternoon we’ll be posting our “Team Tuley Thoroughbred Shots” on VSiN.com), we feel like we didn’t accomplish much during the day. We thought our picks were off to a great start with the White Sox jumping out to a 4-0 lead over the Dodgers in a one-day game, but Dylan Cease couldn’t hold the lead as the bullpen wasn’t much help like the The Dodgers won 11-9. Our results did not improve in night games. We had the Twins +1.5 +100 against the Yankees. It started off great again as the first three Twins batters homered off Gerrit Cole and five took him deep as he only lasted 2 1/3 innings with the Twins winning 7-3. We felt like we were on the right side again, but even though Minnesota starter Dylan Bundy walked away with a lead, the bullpen allowed 6 runs and the Yankees won 10-7 when the Twins couldn’t even cover the running line. We also couldn’t make our NHL play on the Rangers +110 vs. Lightning held a home advantage as the Rangers drew first blood but fell 3-1. :Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s overall betting results and try to get back on the winning track on Friday as we head into the weekend.
Thursday NHL recaps: The Lightning beat the Rangers 3-1 on Thursday night to take a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lightning won as a -120 favorite as the first away team to win in this series (the game remained under 5.5 goals betting total). The favorites improved to 7-2 in the conference final round and now lead 54-28 overall. The home teams fell to 5-3 in this round and 50-32 overall. Unders improved to 6-3 in this round (4-1 in this series), while Overs still leads 43-37-2 (53.8 percent) overall.
MLB: The Angels (-128 favorites at home) beat the Red Sox 5-2 on Thursday night to snap a 14-game losing streak. The favorites went 8-3 on the day with upsets from the Rockies (+210 in a 4-2 win over the Giants), Diamondbacks (+125 in a 5-4 win over the Reds) and Phillies (+150). in an 8-3 win over the Brewers). The local teams finished 6-5. Overs 6-5.
More MLB: The favorites are 511-327 SU (61 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-’em (the favorites usually win about 59 percent, so the favorites are still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 439-416 (51.3 percent, but generally closer to 54 percent). Unders leads just 422-389-42 (52 percent).
NBA: There’s no game Thursday, but here are the playoff stats ahead of Friday’s game. The favorites are 2-1 SU and ATS so far in the finals and 56-28 SU and 49-35 ATS (58.3 percent) overall. Home teams 2-1 SU and ATS in Finals while 51-33 SU and 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent) overall. The zig-zig is 2-0 ATS so far in the Finals, 39-30 ATS (56.5 percent) overall. The Overs are 2-1 in the Finals, but the Unders lead 49-35 (58.3 percent).
Friday’s Take Angels vs. Mets: We’ve waited a long time for this cavalier play as the Angels finally snapped their 14-game losing streak last night. Both teams are battling injuries. As of early Friday morning, the Angels hadn’t announced a starting pitcher, so we could have a “starter” or a bullpen game, but either way we’re looking to back the Angels as they get the momentum to put end his streak. We’re also looking to fade the Red Sox as their 7-game winning streak is snapped and they have to travel to Seattle to face the Mariners, who are suddenly playing well with back-to-back winning streaks against the Astros, Orioles, Rangers and Astros again . We will update the lines when they are available on Friday.
Warriors + 4 at Celtics: I was dithering (“mmmm,” as Homer Simpson would say, “waffles!”) back and forth about what to do about Game 4 on Friday. We’re sitting pretty with the Celtics winning 2-1 in the NBA Finals on our series bet, but I feel like this might be the place to take cover. Now, we could take the +195 Warriors to win the series and secure a win, but I’m greedy and like the idea of taking the +4 Warriors to cover in Game 4 better. If they win to even the game outright, I’ll make some gains, but it has the added benefit that the Celtics could win by 1-3 points (although a lack of coverage by the winning team hasn’t happened much in this year’s NBA playoffs) and I’ll win. the hedge as well as being in excellent shape for my series bet. If the Celtics win and cover, I won’t feel too bad about losing this play. This is also why I’m not using it as my best bet of the day. Good luck today (and every day!).